"Macroeconomic Determinants of Business Formation in the U.S.: An ARDL Approach” (Job Market Paper)
Using autoregressive distributed lag models, this paper studies how macroeconomic conditions, especially government transfer payments, are associated with U.S. business formation from 2004 to 2026. Over the full sample, bounds tests suggest a long-run relationship at the 10 percent level, in which transfers and long-term interest rates enter positively and GDP and unemployment negatively. Sample splits and interactions with indicators for the 2008 and COVID-19 recessions show that these results are driven by the COVID-19 period. Transfers show no significant association with business formation in calm years or before the pandemic; their association is larger during COVID, with no significant additional effect during the 2008 financial crisis. In samples excluding COVID, GDP enters positively, and unemployment insurance is positively associated with business formation, consistent with a liquidity channel for necessity entrepreneurship. Pandemic transfers were associated with more high- and low-propensity applications, whereas the additional COVID association of unemployment insurance appears only among low-propensity applications, consistent with the hypothesis of filings made to access pandemic benefits or with a shift toward non-employer self-employment. The interest rate enters positively in every subsample, contrary to the cost-of-capital channel, and remains a puzzle. The role of transfers appears to depend on the nature of the downturn and the type of transfer.
● “Macroeconomic Drivers of Corporate Investment Across Industries”
● “Impact of Bank Loans on Industrial Production in the United States”
Guluzade, Kamala. “Fintech in Banking Sector (Azerbaijan Model).” Proceedings of the II International Scientific Conference of Young Researchers, Baku Engineering University, April 27–28, 2018, p. 768.